In February, as I began my cloud watching in earnest, I wrote the following:

“Only time will tell if my cloud watching is attention well spent.  If the cloud is indeed “the future of the Internet“, then yes.  If the cloud is merely a repackaging of everything that we already do, then no.  Most likely, the cloud’s promise falls somewhere in between, landing closer to the future than the past.”

Since then, of course, I’ve launched Elemental Cloud Computing, which some have interpreted as a now bullish position on cloud computing.  That would be a misinterpretation. Consistent with that that February post, my interest in cloud computing remains understanding the potential in terms of opportunity and risk, and the ties to my on-going work and interest areas:

“Added to this (more likely than not) significance, are parallels with my own writings, work and interest areas (current and past), including architecture realization through blending strategies, the power of service grids, the ceding of applications to business capabilities, the morphing of boxes to platforms, and (forthcoming) creating an active information tier.”

Over the weekend, I answered an email inquiry from a Financial Analyst at a Securities firm, who wanted my opinion on “clouds”.  My (unedited) response:

“As for cloud computing, it’s very early.  The economics make cloud computing attractive, especially in tough economic times.  However, the savings need to be weighed against very real risks posed by security, compliance and overall stability.

Given the early stage and limited adoption stories, I find myself cautiously optimistic about the space.  However, there is a real risk that the industry loses itself in the rampant hype, forgoing necessary investment and innovation, and falling back on cloud-washing current products.  In that case, cloud computing will be nothing but the biggest hype wave (yet) to crash.

So, long winded way of saying, I’m neutral for now.”

Cloud computing bull or bear?  Neither yet.  Neutral for now.  But, I’m intrigued enough to increase investment of my attention.  You should too.